1. Neither Butler nor Drake will make the Sweet 16. It's never the highly-touted mid-majors that do well. It's the ones that go under the radar that succeed. Gonzaga's had the "highly-touted mid-major" tag for the past few years and has never gone above what was expected.
2. Stanford v. Cornell. What? This isn't the International Quiz Bowl Tournament? Players on both teams will do just fine off the court.
3. And maybe these teams should focus a little more in the classroom? No. 2 Tennessee graduates 33 percent of its basketball-student athletes, while their opponent, No. 15 American, graduates 15 percent of its basketball student-athletes, according to a study released by the University of Central Florida's Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sport. At least for Tennessee, it won't matter, because they'll be winning this game easily.
4. Speaking of that study, the all-academic Final Four would include Western Kentucky (100 percent), Butler (92 percent), Notre Dame (91 percent) and Purdue (91 percent). Um, that's all but one of the Indiana schools...but IU doesn't lag too far behind at 76 percent. How plausible would it be for any of those teams make the actual Final Four? Not likely.
5. The last few major conference bubble teams to qualify will not win in the first round. They aren't that good. Thus, early exits for Villanova, Kansas St., Kentucky and Baylor.
6. The record for No. 16 seeds going into the tournament? 0-92. After 2008? 0-96.
7. The record for No. 15 seeds against No. 2 seeds going into the tournament? 4-88. After 2008? 4-92.
8. At least one two-seed will not make the Sweet 16. A likely candidate is Duke, who will face a tough West Virginia squad led by Joe Alexander. If Joe Alexander played at this level earlier in the season, Luke Harangody would have had some competition in the race for Big East POY.
9. Xavier is overrated and won't make the Sweet 16. Remember George Washington in 2006? They were 26-2 and got the deserved 8-seed and struggled in the first round. Even St. Joe's underperformed after its undefeated regular season in '03-'04, with a loss in the Elite 8. I've never trusted the A-10 and won't this year. Xavier has one top 25 win against Indiana and that's not exactly a 3-seed worthy "best" win.
10. The good Big East schools will do well in the tournament. That includes Notre Dame, Louisville, Connecticut and Georgetown. The first three are all playing extremely well right now (a la Florida's surges the past two seasons) and Georgetown is a tourney-tested team. Sweet 16 for all four teams and two will make the Elite 8 (minus Notre Dame and UConn).
11. The West Region is the most wide open. Remember the 2000 bracket with three No. 8 seeds littering the Final Four and Elite 8? I see very similar in this region. The weakest No. 2 seed (Duke) and No. 3 seed (Xavier) are in the same region. That plays into the hands of hot teams like No. 6 Purdue and No. 7 West Virginia.
12. Georgia won't be able to compete against Xavier. Gerry McNamara's Orangmenen did the same thing two years ago - winning four games in a row to take the Big East title - but then got drilled in the first round. A Thursday game does the Bulldogs no favors.
13. The five-star freshmen will struggle in the tournament. From Michael Beasley to Derrick Rose to O.J. Mayo to Eric Gordon and on down the list, notice that it will be upperclassmen (a la Tyler Hansbrough, Darren Collison and Chris Lofton) that will do well this year. OK, so the Beasley v. Mayo matchup might look good, but whoever wins will struggle in the second round when the two aren't playing each other.
14. What about first round upset specials? I'll give a few. Temple over Michigan State? While the Spartans are on an upswing of sorts, the Owls are on an even greater upswing in the second year sans John Chaney. They won the A-10 tourney, which counts for something, even if I discredit the conference as a whole. Merry Christmas, Temple. The Owls' led by Christmas (Dionte Christmas) make it to the second round as a proverbial No. 12 over No. 5 upset pick.
15. San Diego over Connecticut? It's only an upset if no one sees it coming, and this game would fall in that category. San Diego won the WCC tournament, beating Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the process. If they can find a way to contain Hasheem Thabeet on both ends of the floor, they have a chance. UConn still wins, but it will be a close game.
16. And the pick no one in their right mind should pick but just might happen. That would be Cal-State Fullerton over Wisconsin. Not only was the Big Ten weak this year, but the Titans are on a hot streak, winning 10 of their last 11 games. Again, close game. But it's awfully tough to top the Badgers in your first appearance against a Bo Ryan squad.
17. Prior to the bracket's release, I was planning to write off Purdue's chances. However, despite the low No. 6 seed, the Boilermakers are in a perfect situation to make a run to the Elite 8. A road through Baylor, Xavier and Duke (or maybe another team?) doesn't look half bad.
18. Staying in the state of Indiana, the Hoosiers might have been hosed by the committee and will suffer for it. If they get by Arkansas like they should, they really have no chance to "prove themselves" against a machine like the North Carolina Tar Heels. No second weekend for the team once thinking Final Four thoughts.
19. My 7-10 picks breakdown. These are as tough to call, if not tougher than, 8-9 games. Butler won't make it to the second weekend, but it will get by a fluffy South Alabama team that exposed serious flaws in its conference tournament loss to Middle Tennessee State.
20. Davidson was a trendy pick in the preseason and it stays that way now. They will beat the always overrated Gonzaga Bulldogs.
21. St. Mary's over Miami (Fla). The Hurricanes? Who? They've gone under the radar for good reason this season and struggled down the stretch.
22. West Virginia over Arizona. I didn't think the Wildcats belonged in the tourney with 14 losses (who cares about SOS with that many losses!) and I think I'll be proven correctly when they lose to West Virginia. This could have very well been a 6-11 matchup.
23. Like every year previously, all four one seeds will NOT qualify for the Final Four. The quickest out? Pittsburgh over No. 1 Memphis in the Sweet 16.
24. No one will pick a perfect bracket. The mathematical odds of doing such are over nine million trillion to one (9,000,000,000,000,000,000
25. Western Kentucky's Courtney Lee will turn heads, even if just for one game against Drake. An NBA lottery pick (and Indianapolis Pike High School grad) that ended up at the Huskies, he might be able to help his team pull off the upset - he'll put up great numbers, nonetheless.
26. No more Jim Larranaga magic from his George Mason Patriots. They lose to Notre Dame in the first round.
27. Time for Sweet 16 picks. First, for the East Region: North Carolina, Notre Dame, Louisville, Tennessee. No surprises here. Washington State's slow down basketball will be interesting for the 3-point shooting, offensive-minded Irish. The Irish simply have more talent.
28. Midwest Region Sweet 16 teams: Kansas, Vanderbilt, USC, Georgetown. USC proves too much for the Badgers.
29. South Region: Memphis, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Texas. Again, boring. A lot of the times the Sweet 16 reshuffles the teams and the good ones that didn't get upset in the first round survive the second round. No saying upsets are confined to the first round.
30. West Region: UCLA, Connecticut, Purdue, West Virginia. If Duke loses (prediction No. 8) and Xavier loses (prediction No. 9), than that leaves Purdue and West Virginia with the best chances. Both teams are playing well enough to make a run into the second weekend.
31. Even that new Nike commercial about Cinderellas will get old by the end of the tournament.
32. Jim Nantz and/or Billy Packer will jump on an annoying, mindless point in the championship game and ride it throughout the telecast. Here's calling for a Gus Johnson/Clark Kellogg announcing duo.
33. There will be one, and only one, buzzer beater. And by buzzer beater, I mean buzzer-beater - the horn sounds as the ball is in the air/net and the shot goes in. There has to be - it's what makes the tournament into March Madness. Basically, a pick-six or walk-off homerun.
34. The over/under on the margin of victory in the No. 1 v. No. 16 games? I'll say 35. All four No. 1 seeds can score and that's trouble for the 16 seeds.
35. The Memphis v. Pittsburgh game will be very close and it might come down to who can shoot better at the free throw line. Thus, it might not be fun to watch. Memphis shoots 59.6 percent from the charity stripe, while Pittsburgh shoots 67.8 percent. Pittsburgh's best free-throw shooter (Gilbert Brown) shoots under 75 percent from the line, while Memphis' best (Derrick Rose) shoots a stunning 69.6 percent. Joey Dorsey is 42-107 on the season. (Little used Pierre Niles is even worse. He shot 5-18 on the season). Memphis' harmatia - tragic flaw - will be its free throw shooting. Enter Pittsburgh into the Elite 8.
36. No matter how bad the jokes are (If A.J. Graves can't find a basketball he just dribbles a cow until it turns into a leather ball), www.ajgravesfacts.com will be mentioned during the Butler telecast.
37. The Divison II National Championship game will not be as exciting this year as it was last year. I don't think a game can get more exciting. If this clip doesn't get you in the mood for basketball, go back to gardening: www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF
38. Bob Knight will be a very boring analyst on ESPN. He hasn't show anything yet, and he won't. I think he's still looking for a coaching job.
39. I will do better than Joe Lunardi in picking the bracket. Bracketologist? Psh. I'll compare the Sweet 16 on, since that's what I'll be predicting here. And if it's a tie, I'll revert to first round upset picks.
40. The team with the easiest route to the Elite 8 is the Kansas Jayhawks. A potential Portland State-UNLV-Vanderbilt isn't all that daunting. Look for double digit wins in all three games.
41. North Carolina also has an easy path. My prediction - it's toughest game will be against IU in the second round. This will be similar to Purdue's effort against Florida last year. Close, but not quite all there. Besides, they play in Raleigh for the first two games and then travel all the way to...Charlotte for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
42. Elite 8 picks. East Region: North Carolina and Louisville. Terrence Williams and David Padgett are a strong 1-2 punch for the Cardinals against a Volunteer team that peaked in February.
43. Midwest Region: Kansas and Georgetown.
44. South Region: Pittsburgh and Stanford. Texas is a trendy picks and if I was picking a safe bracket, I'd probably stick the Longhorns in the Final Four. However, the Lopez brothers are tough to handle, and UT has shown occasional lapses throughout the season, in losses to teams like Missouri and Texas Tech. They can't play a bad game in the second weekend and hope to advance.
45. West Region: UCLA and West Virginia.
46. The Final Four averages 1.5 No. 1 seeds. Only three times has the average seed been higher than five. In 1980, Louisville (2) won the championship over UCLA (8), Purdue (6) and Iowa (5). In 2000, Michigan State (1) joined Florida (5) and No. 8 seeds North Carolina and Wisconsin. In 2006, No. 11 seed George Mason crashed the party with Florida (3), UCLA (2) and LSU (4). This year, the average seed will be under 2.5.
47. Final Four Matchup No. 1: North Carolina and Kansas. UNC will have won four "home" games. The Kansas v. Georgetown matchup presents contrasting styles of play, but the abundance of Jayhawk talent helps them get by the G-men, even if they play the control game.
48. Final Four Matchup No. 2: UCLA and Stanford. A Pac 10 battle in the Final Four? Yes. And a good one, just in case you missed the Pac 10 Conference tournament championship game.
49. Finals: North Carolina vs. UCLA. Now, how's that for college basketball nostalgia?
50. Champion: UCLA. They've been close the past two seasons (finals in 2006, Final Four in 2007), and they get the job done with players who've been there twice (namely, Darren Collison, Lorenzo Mata-Real and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute).
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